On The 1994 Indian Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly

Hazrat Mir

Abstract


In this study effort has been made to examine the diabetic heating anomaly for June to August during 1994. Moisture flux associated with southwesterly winds, that cause the west coast of India from the Arabian Sea, low level wind & relative vorticity field for the day 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th July, and vertical wind velocity at 500 hPa for 13th July. The fact that the rainfall associates with just one event during 1994 monsoon contributed in the order of one standard deviation of rainfall, and this event was quite poorly predicted long range statistical forecast models have been developed to predict Indian rainfall on the basis of large scale indices of the atmospheric circulations in the preceding month.
However, one event (Monsoon low/depression) that would appear difficult to have been predicted so far ahead, has been identified, which appears to account for about 7.5% out of the observed 12% rainfall excess of 1994.
The result must be that the rainfall anomaly of the 1994 Indian summer monsoon was not predictable prior to the monsoon onset.


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References


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Parthasarathy, B., Sontakke, N.A., Munot, A.A., and Kothawale, D.R., 1990: Vagaries ofn Indian monsoon rainfall and its relationships with regional/ global circulations. Mausam, 14, 301-308.

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Rodwell, M.J., and Hoskins, B.J. 1995: Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Submitted to QJRMS.


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