Seasonal Precipitation Variation over Punjab Province

S B Cheema, M Hanif

Abstract


Rainfall variability was examined throughout the Province of Punjab extended over a time period of 45 years (1961-05) using precipitation data. The spatial and temporal variation in rainfall was observed. Area weighted rain was calculated by using the area factor assigned by computerized data processing centre (CDPC) Karachi. Punjab has been divided into two main regions Northern Punjab and Southern Punjab. This study was carried out to elaborate the direct and indirect impacts of rainfall on society especially on agriculture sector. This research work identifies the rainfall shifting pattern for Punjab. Correlation has been found among GPCC (global precipitation climate centre), climate research unit (CRU) and Observed data. The SPSS (Statistical package for social sciences) software and some other softwares were used to diagnose the trend and shifting patterns of rainfall on pentad, decadal and 15 years basis. Kolomogorov Smorinov test (Non parametric test) was used to define the characteristics of rainfall for differen regions. Rainfall variability of Punjab was analyzed on seasonal basis. The pentad basis analysis did not show any significant change in the province. Pentad time series of rainfall showed overal increasing trend during 1976-80, but there was a decreasing trend for the last pentad 2001-05 in the province. The analysis shows that major part of Northern and Southern Punjab depicts clear shifting of rainfall towards the northern east and southern west of the province respectively. These
results illustrate a positive indication for the agriculture and hydrological activity in these areas.


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