Trend and Variability Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall in Bangladesh

Syeda J A


An attempt was made to investigate the trend and variability pattern for annual and seasonal
(Three crop seasons) total rainfall (TR) for all the six divisional stations in Bangladesh: Dhaka,
Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal, Sylhet and Chittagong. The monthly TR (2009-2012) is forecasted
using univariate Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modelling
technique on the basis of minimum root mean square forecasting error. The rates of linear trend
for annual TR were found positive for all the stations where the rate was significant for Khulna
(5.82 mm/yr) only. The fairly high rates were observed for Dhaka (4.77) and Sylhet (2.83 mm/yr)
with abnormal and/or no stationary residuals while the low rates were documented for Barisal,
Chittagong and Rajshahi. During Kharif season, the positive rates are established for Dhaka
(2.09) and Khulna (3.63 mm/yr) while negative for other four stations. During and Rabi seasons,
the rate was again approved positive except Rabi season of Rajshahi (negative). The findings
support that the climate of Bangladesh is changing in terms of total yearly rainfall which will
affect its agriculture in different ways.

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