Mean Temperature Projection by PRECIS over Pakistan for 2001-2010

Ali G, W Iqbal, G Rasul

Abstract


The regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) of the
Headley Centre, Met Office UK, was used to simulate temperature along with other parameters at
0.22
°
× 0.22
°
(about 25 km × 25 km) resolution for Pakistan. The PRECIS output mean
temperature was compared with two datasets; (1) a published dataset of CRU (Climate Research
Unit) developed by the University of East Anglia, which is a dataset prepared from the real time
data of station observatories all over the world, and (2) real time temperature data of the
observatories of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). While there is a large scale
agreement between these datasets, considerable regional differences also exist. During the
summer season (JJA, i.e. June, July and August) the PRECIS is warm bias in Punjab, southern
Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, northern Sindh and the adjoining areas, while this trend shrinks to a
smaller region during the winter season of DJF (i.e. December, January and February) as
compare to the observed temperature data sets (i.e. both CRU and PMD observed temperature
data). Overall the PRECIS predicted temperature is in good agreement with CRU and PMD
observed temperature in the lower plane areas of the country with slight differences, whereas in
the northern hilly areas of complex topography there exist large biases between these datasets
(i.e. PRECIS and the two observed datasets). Thus the model behavior is rather a chaotic one in
the regions with latitude greater than 30
°
(more precisely in the regions with latitudes greater
than 33
°
). The correlation between PRECIS and PMD observed temperature in the regions with
latitude smaller than 30
°
is better than the correlation between them in the region with latitude
greater than 30
°


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