Diagnostic Study of Heavy Downpour in the central part of Pakistan

Muhammad Aleem-ul-Hassan, Sajjad Haider, Kalim Ullah


Diagnosis of heavy rainfall event of July 2005 that caused urban flooding in Multan City, located in Punjab province of Pakistan has been carried out in the study. By using the conventional weather charts of Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data plots and analysis of temporal and spatial distribution of different weather parameters at the surface and in the upper air have been done. It is diagnosed that the heavy rainfall occurred under the influence of approaching monsoon depression, westerly wave prevailing over Kashmir and surrounding Himalayan region and its interaction with the upper air easterly wave. Besides this, the mesoscale low slightly northeast of the study area and an intensified ridge penetrating from northeast up to west of the study area, created the area of discontinuity that caused the interaction of northeastern and southwestern currents. The intensive heating in the last week of June and due to influence of westerly, a mesoscale low was formed in the leading trough of depression. The seasonal low was also realigned due
to its interaction with westerly wave and the depression. Streamlines at lower level indicate that moisture transport from Arabian Sea was started two days prior to the event with maximum transport from 3rd July Night. On the basis of these synoptic features the amount of rainfall can be predicted well in time and therefore, it may help in minimizing the flood damages in the form of losses of human lives, soil erosion as well as managing the sewerage channels.

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